Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
2nd Quarter 2007 « Thread Started on Apr 1, 2007, 5:35am »
U.S. MARKETS : MARCH 26 TO MARCH 30, 2007
Preview for Week April 02 to April 06, 2007
Its the start of a new quarter!! A quarter that generally finishes to the downside in a big way. So Bulls beware, the Bears are raring to run rife!!
Its been a real busy week for me and a harrowing market to add to that stress. So forgive me for being tired and keeping this report short and sharp;
BRIEFING.COM - Friday 30 March 2007 @ 16:45 ET AMC Weekly Wrap:
The fundamentals were almost entirely bearish this week. It is no surprise that all the major indices were lower. In fact, it is a bit surprising that the sell-off was not more severe.
Oil prices were up sharply, the Fed Chairman as much as said that rate cuts are unlikely any time soon, the economic data were mixed at best, and a key inflation measure was higher than expected. There wasn't any significant corporate news to offset the bearish macro-economic issues.
The Fed Chairman's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday ranked as the most important event of the week. Fed Chairman Bernanke said that inflation remains the predominant concern. He made that absolutely clear.
He did not express significant concern about economic growth, and while recognizing the risk from the housing sector, he also suggested that the impact from the problems in the subprime mortgage market would be contained.
Bernanke's testimony implied that it will take a while for the current level of interest rates to bring inflation down. That means market hopes for a rate cut by the end of the summer are overly optimistic. The S&P lost 11 points on the day of his testimony.
The economic data this week brought mixed news. New home sales for February were down 3.9% despite expectations of a bounce from a sharp drop in January. Consumer confidence in March posted the first drop in five months. February durable goods new orders were up a smaller than expected 2.5% after a 9.3% plunge in January. The housing and manufacturing sectors remain drags on the economy.
More positively, initial claims for unemployment remained at low levels, reflecting a strong labor market. Fourth quarter real GDP growth was revised modestly higher to a 2.5% annual rate from 2.2%. The March Chicago PMI index jumped sharply higher to a strong 61.7 from 47.9 in February, raising hopes of a manufacturing rebound. And February personal consumption expenditures rose a stronger than expected 0.6%, showing that consumer spending remains strong.
The most important economic release, however, was the clearly bearish 0.3% increase in the February core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator.
This is the Fed's favorite inflation measure. The gain was larger than an expected 0.2%, and follows a 0.1% increase in December and a 0.2% gain in January. It raised the year-over-year increase to 2.4% from 2.2% in January. The Fed's forecast calls for this to get below 2.0% in 2008. It is going in the wrong direction.
This is just one month of data and it shouldn't be over-emphasized. If the core PCE continues at even a 0.2% rate in upcoming months, however, it will keep the Fed in an aggressive inflation fighting mood. Higher inflation is always bad for the financial markets.
Adding to inflation concerns is the fact that oil prices rose to about $66 a barrel this week from $62 last week and $57 the week before. The Iran situation was a factor, but there are concerns that oil prices will remain higher regardless of how that plays out.
The macro economic news therefore amounts to rising inflationary pressures, a tough stance from the Fed, and continued sluggish economic indicators. There isn't a lot of good news. The market could have sold off more following the solid gains last week.
The biggest corporate news this week was that Dell is delaying its 10-K report due to an ongoing investigation into its accounting, but that news didn't hit the stock market very hard since it is a company-specific issue.
The first quarter ended with the S&P nearly flat for the year. It was an up and down quarter with excessive optimism followed by excessive fears. The market has filtered through it all and has assessed that stable interest rates and significantly slower earnings growth warrant little net change.
The market is likely to remain extremely sensitive to economic releases, but an increased focus to corporate news will develop as first quarter earnings reports in mid-April approach.
EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEEK OF APRIL 02 TO APRIL 06, 2007 A light week for earnings with retail giants BBY and CC taking the highlight on Wednesday BMO. Also watch for MON on the same day for an insight into the food industry. MON, like FDX, is an Early Cycle Stock for the agriculture and alternative energy industries.
Personally, I have always loved Constellation Brands (STZ) as a spread trade. Lately, they've been beaten down but the second half of March has seen an uncharacteristic $2 drive up the charts, two weeks before its earnings. Their fundamentals are at best, fair, but have been improving, prompting me to believe that STZ may have some sweet cards up its sleeve for Thursday (BMO). From Motley Fool: It's been more than a year since the company behind St. Pauli Girl brews and Mondavi wines beat analyst estimates, so don't get too excited about the report's prospects. Or, heck, maybe it's overdue. So watch for more aaplcart movement this week to get an idea of what STZ might do.
Earnings Highlights for Monday April 02 AMC: MERX, MNTG
Earnings Highlights for Tuesday April 03 BMO: ISCA, POP AMC: OXM, RBN
Earnings Highlights for Wednesday April 04 BMO: AYI, BBY, BTH, CC, GBX, MON, MSM AMC: HWAY, BLUD, LWSN, MU, ZZ
Earnings Highlights for Thursday April 05 BMO: SHLM, STZ, RPM AMC: RSTO, WDFC
No Earnings Highlights for Friday April 06
ECONOMIC EVENTS FOR WEEK OF APRIL 02 TO APRIL 06, 2007 Events for Monday April 02 10:00 am ISM Index
Events Tuesday April 03 17:00 pm Auto Sales 17:00 pm Truck Sales
Events for Wednesday April 04 10:00 am Factory Orders 10:00 am ISM Services 10:30 am Crude Inventories
Events for Thursday April 05 08:30 am Initial Claims 10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories
Events for Friday April 06 (Note: Markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. So these events may be rescheduled) 08:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls 08:30 am Unemployment Rate 08:30 am Hourly Earnings 08:30 am Average Workweek 10:00 am Wholesale Inventories 15:00 pm Consumer Credit
COMMENTARY Nonfarm Payrolls. This event always makes my hair stand. But with Friday being a holiday, there is still no update on when this event will be rescheduled to.
Its hard to see the DOW not pulling back early in the week with a possible consolidation or reversal on Wednesday. Same for the S&P 500. NASDAQ may throw up some surprises with some upside divergence that may well keep the market from tanking. If I only knew if Nonfarm Payrolls were coming out on Thursday instead of Monday next week, I'd have a clearer picture on the way the shortened trading week might end. ___________________________________________
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIND: CBOT) 12,354.35 +5.60 (+0.05%) Direction for the week April 02 to April 06 2007; Flat ___________________________________________
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMB) (COMP.IDX: NASDAQ) 2,421.64 +3.76 (+0.16%) Direction for the week April 02 to April 06 2007; Up ___________________________________________
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE) 1,420.86 -1.67 (-0.12%) Direction for the week April 02 to April 06 2007; Flat ___________________________________________
SUMMARY I'm expecting a down week but with the oncoming three day weekend this Good Friday, a rally may be on the cards. Should the market pull back some more before that Friday, investors will be out with a vengeance on Thursday and may prompt a monster rally that may cancel out the week's earlier losses.
So beware, take care and trade safely! Happy Hunting to all!
Direction for the week April 02 to April 06 2007; Modestly Up
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
2 April - BMO « Reply #1 on Apr 2, 2007, 12:50am »
(E-mini) Futures Monday 02 April 2007 @ 00:45 ET : S&P 500 (JUN) +1.75 • NASDAQ 100 (JUN) +1.75 • DOW ($5) (JUN) +8.00 Treasury Yield Monday 02 April 2007 @ 00:45 ET : 5 Year Note 4.53% 0.00 • 10 Year Note 4.64% 0.00 • 30 Year Bond 4.84% 0.00
Looks like the Nonfarm Payrolls data will come out on Friday as planned, regardless of Good Friday. Equity traders won't be able to react but currency traders can.
MARKET SNAPSHOT - 7:00 AM ET Mar 31, 2007 U.S. stocks seen falling in coming week First quarter earnings concern, oil prices hurt sentiment
(MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks are expected to extend declines next week, as concern about weakening corporate earnings and higher oil prices keeps potential buyers out of the market, strategists said. "We're still [moving] lower, trying to find a base as we approach the earnings season," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
The highlight of next week's economic calendar will come Friday with the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department. While economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect more jobs to have been added to the country's payrolls in March, investors have a thick wall of worry to confront ahead of the report, including a possible rash of weak corporate forecasts and an almost 6% rise in crude-oil prices in the last week amid the Iranian hostage situation.
But U.S. equity investors won't get a chance to immediately trade on the jobs figures because the stock market will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Any immediate reaction to the jobs report should be reflected in the bond and currency markets, which will be open for business on Friday. Still, "the jobs report is going to be huge. The market is going to look for some strength there to balance off some of the weak signals that we've had lately," said Eric Thorne, portfolio manager at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management. The survey on manufacturing activity in March from the Institute for Supply Management is due Monday and follows this week's report of an unexpectedly soft increase in durable goods orders for February.
Gauges of consumer activity will come Tuesday with monthly vehicle sales reports from automakers including General Motors Corp. (GM : 30.64, -0.25, -0.8% ) , Ford Motor Co. (F : 7.89, -0.06, -0.8% ) , and earnings reports on Wednesday from Best Buy Co. (BBY : 48.72, -0.21, -0.4% ) and Circuit City Co. (CC : 18.53, +0.10, +0.5% ) .
First quarterly loss in two years Equities marked the end of the first quarter Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : 12,354.35, +5.60, +0.0% ) recording its first quarterly loss since 2005. The broad index now sits in negative territory for the year so far. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, were clinging to modest gains for the year.
Jolting stocks on Friday was news that the U.S. has imposed trade sanctions on China. "We're in a nervous market," said Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards, who said the news of the sanctions triggered the market's hatred of uncertainty. Volatility could also heightened next week by the fewer number of market players in action with Passover on Monday, said Goldman.
Crude-oil futures finished slightly lower on Friday at $65.87 a barrel, but not far from their highest level in four months.
The market is "torn between profit takers trying to lock in the current unreasonable highs in oil prices, and those wary of going into the weekend unsure of what new troubles may pop up on the geopolitical front," said Rakesh Shankar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in e-mailed comments. Higher gasoline prices adds to the list of worries by consumers, many of whom are already grappling with the shakeup and uncertain future of the subprime lending sector and the slowdown in the housing market overall.
Earnings outlook The warning season for financial results officially begins next week, said Pado, and "if any companies know that they are going to miss the numbers, they are going to be revealing that before the season starts."
The first-quarter reporting season begins April 10 with results from aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. (AA : 33.90, +0.22, +0.7% ) . The record run of 14 straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth is projected to come to an end in the first-quarter. The earnings growth rate for the period currently stands at 3.8%, down from 8.7% projected on Jan. 1. Forecasts from companies about their first-quarter results are running quite "negative," said John Butters, senior research analysts at Thomson Financial.
Thomson's ratio of negative-to-positive forecasts from S&P 500 companies for the first quarter is now 3.2, well above the long-term average of 2. "It's not time to throw in the towel on earnings...[but it's] another thing to be worried about," said John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments.
Data Economists polled by MarketWatch expect an increase by 139,000 in March nonfarm payrolls. In February, payrolls had their weakest growth in two years. "If the report can come in a little bit stronger than expectations...then the [stock] market can have a couple of good sessions based on that," in the following week, said Thorne at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management. The unemployment rate is expected to move up to 4.6% from 4.5%.
Market players will look through the jobs report to check on monthly wage levels. The central bank views higher wages as a sign of rising inflation. Forelli at Independence Investments said he "wouldn't be surprised to trade off [in stocks next week] as investors begin to worry about near term inflation due to the strength of the global economies." Economists expect average hourly earnings in March to have moved to 0.3%, compared with a higher-than-expected rise to 0.4% in February.
The last key check on inflationary pressure came Friday from the core personal consumption price index. The core PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, rose 0.3% in February, the biggest gain since August. ISM's manufacturing survey is expected to come in at 52%, a slip from 52.3% in February. A reading of more than 50 reflects expansion. Economists forecast a 1.9% increase in factory orders for February. The Commerce's Department's report is due Wednesday. Demand of U.S.-made manufactured goods dropped by 5.6% in January, the largest fall since July 2000.
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Events for Monday April 02 10:00 am ISM Index
Earnings Highlights for Monday April 02 AMC: MERX, MNTG
COMMENTARY As I said yesterday, we should be seeing some downside today and tomorrow. Futures may be pointing up right now but its still hours away from the open and anything is possible. I'm sticking to technicals and internals as reading into the market tends to confuse issues in this already confusing market. ___________________________________________
Direction for Monday 02 April 2007; Down ___________________________________________
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE) 1,420.86 -1.67 (-0.12%) Volume: 2,334,734,600 - 5.07% Con's 2nd Res: 1'429 Con's 1st Res: 1'426 Con's 1st Sup: 1'417 Con's 2nd Sup: 1'414 Direction for Monday 02 April 2007; Down ___________________________________________
SUMMARY Rickshawmen all around. If there is one thing I know about rickshawmen, is that they stink! Thus, with so many of them around in the market now, the market stinks ... so be careful!
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
02 Apr - AMC « Reply #2 on Apr 2, 2007, 8:39pm »
Quote:
... we should be seeing some downside today and tomorrow. Futures may be pointing up right now but its still hours away from the open and anything is possible. I'm sticking to technicals and internals as reading into the market tends to confuse issues in this already confusing market.
Direction for Monday 02 April 2007; Down
Now I'm really confused!??! Which direction did the buyers go?
BRIEFING.COM - Monday 02 April 2007 @ 16:28 ET AMC Stock Market Update - Market Ekes Out Gains
With economic data playing an increasingly important role of late, investors were initially expecting an update on national manufacturing conditions to set a more definitive tone to Monday's action.
However, after the ISM Index failed to offer a positive surprise following Friday's strong Chicago PMI data, participants were left looking for other catalysts to get buying efforts back on track after stocks recently limped into the end of Q1 battered and bruised. As a reminder, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the quarter up just 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, but the Dow fell 0.9%, logging its worst quarterly performance since Q2 of 2005.
A wave of M&A news, typical for a Monday morning, provided some comfort, suggesting stocks may have found a short-term bottom. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts offered to take First Data Corp. (FDC 32.45 +5.55) private for $29 bln, a 26% premium to Friday's close. Tribune Co. (TRB 32.80 +0.69) agreed to an $8.2 bln bid from Chicago real estate magnate Sam Zell, ending a six-month battle for the troubled publisher.
In other related news, Altria Group (MO 68.21 +2.31) surged 3.5% as shareholders applauded its spin off of Kraft Foods (KFT 30.79 -0.87), positioning the Dow to keep pace with its long history of observing April as its best month of the year.
Be that as it may, further evidence of trouble in the housing market, after M&T Bank (MTB 105.95 -9.88) lowered its Q1 guidance citing weakness in the secondary market for Alt-A loans, acted as an overhang all day and minimized overall market gains. M&T's warning left Regional Banks as one of the day's worst performing S&P industry groups (-2.0%) and placed added concern on the rest of the influential Financials sector, removing some notable leadership.
Investors also contended with volatile oil prices and some commentary from St. Louis Fed President William Poole who said the Fed isn't likely to cut interest rates even as the economy slows. After climbing as high as $66.69/bbl (+1.2%) earlier, and helping the Energy sector continue to attract bargain hunters after a dismal start to 2007, crude for May delivery closed relatively flat on the day near $66/bbl.
Utilities (+1.9%), though, was the day's best performer following analyst upgrades on PG & E Corp (PCG 49.37 +1.10) and TECO Energy (TE 17.61 +0.40). This year's best performing sector (+10.4%) continues to attract buyers due to its defensive characteristics as well, especially since economic growth remains sluggish and aggregate earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 continue to fall.
Market Internals for Monday 02 April 2007 - 18:15
Leading Sectors: Tech (+0.32%), Health Care (+0.42%), Consumer Staples (+0.50%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.37%), Energy (+1.11%), Telecom (+0.24%) Materials (+0.19%), and Utilities (+1.94%). Leading Industries : Data Processing and Outsourcing Services +4.7%, Tobacco +3.3%, Gas Utilities +2.3%, Electric Utilities +2.3%, Oil and Gas Equip +2.1%.
Lagging Sectors: Financials (-0.54%) and Industrials (-0.06%). Lagging Industries: IT Consulting and Services -2.1%, Regional Banks -2.0%, Diversified Banks -1.7%, Homebuilding --1.4%, Building Products --1.2%.
NYSE: Lower than avg volume: 1503, vs. 1608 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 2039/1214 New highs outpacing new lows: 199/34.
Nasdaq: Lower than avg volume: 1757, vs. 2064 avg Even Advancers / Decliners : 1517/1517 New highs outpacing new lows: 119/74
Rickshawmen all around. If there is one thing I know about rickshawmen, is that they stink! Thus, with so many of them around in the market now, the market stinks ... so be careful!
Headline worries for the market include oil (which closed just under $66), manufacturing is hardly growing, higher component pricing, New Century's bankruptcy filing with 3'200 job cuts, Energy plants to face stiffer scrutiny after Duke Energy's screw up and the oncoming Q2 earnings season which, traditionally, sucks.
No surprise then, that we didn't run up today. But surprisingly, we didn't finish lower than I had expected. How the market managed to squeeze out a very modest gain is unreal. Especially if you consider that NASDAQ spent the better of 5 hours below the water-line and still managed to eke out a 62¢ (+0.03%) gain, literally, at the very last minute.
More of the same tomorrow? If we should be so lucky. Because I'm still sticking to the idea that we'll pull back before this shortened week ends on Thursday.
REPORT SUMMARY Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 167 days) DOW JONES : 32.252/167 = 0.1931% off (99.8069%) NASDAQ : 45.083/167 = 0.2699% off (99.7301%) S&P 500 : 33.978/167 = 0.2035% off (99.7965%)
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
3 April - BMO « Reply #3 on Apr 3, 2007, 6:16am »
(E-mini) Futures Tuesday 03 April 2007 @ 05:55 ET : S&P 500 (JUN) +4.80 • NASDAQ 100 (JUN) +7.00 • DOW ($5) (JUN) +31.00 Treasury Yield Tuesday 03 April 2007 @ 05:55 ET : 5 Year Note 4.53% 0.00 • 10 Year Note 4.64% 0.00 • 30 Year Bond 4.83% -0.01
Bonds are hardly moving and oil is just below $66 (+0.07) and the whole world is very optimistic.
Briefing.com Updated: Mon-02-Apr-07 17:32 ET : After Hours Report - Trade Lacking Conviction:
Price level vs. 4 pm ET: The major averages closed higher even though relatively in-line March ISM Index data (50.7 versus consensus of 51.0) left traders without a solid catalyst for trade.
Eight out of ten economic sectors posted gains today after a session of thin activity. Financials were one of today's weaker sectors after M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) announced Friday a write-down of loans above subprime, but below prime. Industrials also showed some weakness.
A slightly weaker tone dictates the after-hours session. The S&P 500 futures, at 1433.30, are 1.46 points below fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1790.00, are 1.53 points below fair value.
The holiday-shortened week will likely continue to be quiet Tuesday, as March Auto Sales and March Truck Sales are the only major economic data on the schedule (Briefing.com consensus of 5.2 million and 7.6 million, respectively).
In terms of earnings, International Speedway (ISCA) will report before the open. EXFO (EXFO), Oxford Industries (OXM), and Robbins & Myers (RBN) will report after the close.
___________________________________________
Events Tuesday April 03 17:00 pm Auto Sales 17:00 pm Truck Sales
Earnings Highlights for Tuesday April 03 BMO: ISCA, POP AMC: OXM, RBN
COMMENTARY A very light day on data and earnings. Not a good thing for such a nervy market. ___________________________________________
Direction for Tuesday 03 April 2007; Up ___________________________________________
SUMMARY This goes against my weekend's analysis as I saw a pull back early in the week. I guess I'll have to go with the obvious technicals and candlesticks and look up today.
If we do get this upside finish today, tomorrow will be a scary proposition.
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
3 April - AMC « Reply #4 on Apr 3, 2007, 5:47pm »
Quote:
This goes against my weekend's analysis as I saw a pull back early in the week. I guess I'll have to go with the obvious technicals and candlesticks and look up today.
Direction for Tuesday 03 April 2007; Up
If you still didn't know how significant a housing sector is to an economy, today was the perfect example of how a bit of good news can turn a flat market into bull run.
BRIEFING.COM - Tuesday 03 April 2007 @ 16:31 ET AMC Stock Market Update - Rising Tide Lifts Most Boats
Stocks surged Tuesday as investors rallied around easing tensions in the Middle East and reassurance about stabilization in the housing market. The Dow turned positive for the year as its 1.0% gain erased a dismal Q1 performance (-0.9%). Of the 147 S&P industry groups, only seven failed to participate in today's broad-based rally.
After climbing to a six-month high above $68/bbl last week, oil prices slipping below $65/bbl early on, amid easing fears of supply disruptions attributed to a potentially diplomatic release of 15 British sailors, provided the initial catalyst for the bulls to make a case for owning equities today. Crude for May delivery briefly fell below $64/bbl (-3.0%), before closing down 2.1% near $64.60/bbl, yet the Energy sector continued to attract buyers.
Further proof that the consumer is still holding up just fine in the face of so many obstacles provided an added boost to the stock market. With the market increasingly sensitive to weak economic data, especially from the housing sector, an unexpected rise of 0.7% in February pending home sales alleviated the worst of fears that a housing crisis will develop and spread into the broader economy. That, in turn, sparked a wave of bargain-hunting interest among underperforming Homebuilders, this year's biggest laggard.
Also helping the Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%) pace the way among the 10 economic sectors posting gains and turn positive for the year were retailers, which became more attractive after a report showed chain store sales for the week ending March 31 rose 4.9%. That was the fastest pace in two months.
Technology, which also turned positive for the year, was another source of notable support. IT Consulting Services, one of Monday's worst performing S&P industry groups, attracted enough bargain hunters interest to rank as today's best performer. Internet Software & Services turned in the session's second best performance as Google (GOOG 472.60 +14.07) soared 3.1% on plans to sell TV ads through a partnership with EchoStar Communications (DISH 44.04 +0.50) partnership and after Goldman Sachs said shares may rise at least another 30% by the end of the year. eBay (EBAY 33.80 +0.80) surged 2.4% after Bear Stearns raised their Q1 profit and sales estimates.
The return of leadership from the struggling Financials sector, though, renewed optimism among investors that a short-term bottom has been put in place. The sector was initially in focus following reports that Warburg Pincus plans to pay about $4 bln for a stake in the upcoming Marshall & Ilsley (MI 49.73 +3.87) spin-off of Metavante. However, the encouraging pending home sales report alleviating worries of the subprime mortgage meltdown adding to the huge inventory of properties already on the market was the main driver prompting buyers to jump back into beaten-down banks and brokerage names.
Market Internals for Tuesday 03 April 2007 - 18:15
Leading Sectors: Financials (+1.16%), Tech (+1.08%), Health Care (+1.10%), Consumer Staples (+0.60%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.20%), Industrials (+0.72%), Energy (+0.38%), Telecom (+0.61%) Materials (+1.14%), and Utilities (+0.10%). Leading Industries : IT Consulting and Services +3.2%, Internet Software and Services +2.5%, Construction Materials +2.5%, Home Furnishings +2.5%, Paper Products +2.4%.
Lagging Sectors: None. Lagging Industries: Independent Power Producers and Energy Traders -0.66%, Oil and Gas Refining -0.53%, Oil and Gas Storage and Trans -0.41%, Coal and Consumable Fuels --0.21%, Casinos and Gaming --0.20%.
NYSE: Lower than avg volume: 1560, vs. 1606 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 2380/873 New highs outpacing new lows: 298/22.
Nasdaq: Lower than avg volume: 1995, vs. 2062 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 2030/1014 New highs outpacing new lows: 171/61
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
4 April - BMO « Reply #5 on Apr 4, 2007, 3:17am »
(E-mini) Futures Wednesday 04 April 2007 @ 03:00 ET : S&P 500 (JUN) +2.50 • NASDAQ 100 (JUN) +2.25 • DOW ($5) (JUN) +20.00 Treasury Yield Wednesday 04 April 2007 @ 03:00 ET : 5 Year Note 4.56% +0.03 • 10 Year Note 4.66% +0.02 • 30 Year Bond 4.84% +0.01
Although the market went through the roof yesterday, the Bond market was virtually unmoved; the Benchmark 10-year note fell 3/32; the dollar steadied against the euro and moved higher against yen.
Employment numbers and Factory Orders today. This is going to be one volatile open. Too much of a good thing may not be good and a little bad news is also not good. Its going to be a fine line.
On the global front, Japan and Hong Kong went bonkers with the Nikkei 225 trading up +308.15 (+1.79%) and the Hang Seng at +179.11 (+0.90%) . Earlier, the Australian ASX 100 closed up +68.00 (+1.40%).
Europe is also up at the open with the CAC +66.35 (+1.18%) , Xextra-Dax +108.39 (+1.56%) and the FTSE 100 +50.60 (+0.80%) .
Gold is down at 669.70 ( -1.80) per Troy oz, while oil continues its decline, now trading at 64.64 ( -1.30) pb.
Briefing.com Updated: Tue-03-Apr-07 17:07 ET : After Hours Report - Oxford Industries Misses On Earnings:
Price level vs. 4 pm ET: The major averages closed higher after breaking out of a multi-day trading range. Ten out of ten economic sectors posted gains today.
Fueling gains was a sell off in crude oil on calmer talks between Iran and the U.K. regarding the release of 15 captured British sailors.
An unexpected rise in February pending home sales figures also cheered investors.
A narrowly mixed tone dictates the after hours session. The S&P 500 futures, at 1447.20, are 0.57 point below fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1814.75, are 1.06 points above fair value.
Although the big economic news will come later in the week with the release of March payrolls data Friday, February Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%) and March ISM Services data (Briefing.com consensus 55.0) could garner some attention tomorrow. Both reports are due out at 10:00 ET.
On the earnings front, seven companies will report before the open, including Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City (CC). After the close, six companies including Immucor (BLUD) and Sealy (ZZ) will report.
___________________________________________
Earnings Highlights for Wednesday April 04 BMO: AYI, BBY, BTH, CC, GBX, MON, MSM AMC: HWAY, BLUD, LWSN, MU, ZZ
Events for Wednesday April 04 10:00 am Factory Orders 10:00 am ISM Services 10:30 am Crude Inventories
COMMENTARY Yesterday, DOW and S&P500 hit their respective short term upside OPs and promptly closed right there, thus burning out any upside reserve for today. Today will see them test their critical resistance levels from their mid-March highs. A break above will give us new highs since Shanghai Surprise. ___________________________________________
Direction for Wednesday 04 April 2007; Up ___________________________________________
SUMMARY I reckon we'll pause to the upside today and pull back to stall on Thursday. Unless of course, the pre-market data give us more reason to run up.
I'm keeping levels shallow and might look to close out my major positions by today.
Direction for Wednesday 04 April 2007; Moderately Up
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
4 April - AMC « Reply #6 on Apr 4, 2007, 10:07pm »
Quote:
I reckon we'll pause to the upside today and pull back to stall on Thursday. Unless of course, the pre-market data give us more reason to run up ... I'm keeping levels shallow and might look to close out my major positions by today.
Direction for Wednesday 04 April 2007; Moderately Up
Shallow?! I could have kept the levels "Narrowly Tight" and it would still not be close enough. Talk about a flat day!
BRIEFING.COM - Wednesday 04 April 2007 @ 16:27 ET AMC Stock Market Update - Bulls Eke out Another Victory
The major averages held onto modest gains Wednesday as a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East and some upbeat analyst commentary provided the bulls with just enough impetus to look past more evidence of slowing economic growth.
With the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 1.0% on average a day earlier, it wasn't surprising to see investors begin to question such sizable gains amid a lack of overwhelming news behind such a surprise rally.
However, with a nearly 6% risk premium put into oil futures last week amid growing geopolitical tensions, Iranian President Ahmadinejad announcing the release of 15 British sailors pushed oil prices to session lows and improved overall sentiment. Crude for May delivery was down as much as 1.7% and below $64/bbl; but it closed well off its lows since the geopolitical crisis involving Iran's capture of 15 Britons merely became less of a crisis as Iran continues to defy UN demands to halt its uranium enrichment program.
As evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue-chip counterparts to the upside and logging its fifth consecutive gain, Technology was the day's best performer. Microsoft (MSFT 28.50 +0.63), which is also the Nasdaq's most influential constituent and third most heavily-weighted stock on the S&P 500, was the driving force behind all three indices.
The day's best performing Dow component soared 2.3% after a Citigroup analyst raised his Q3 earnings and revenue estimates due to demand for Microsoft's Windows Vista. An analyst upgrade on Semiconductor Equipment (+1.7%), the day's seventh best performing S&P industry group, provided additional sector support.
Health Care and Consumer Staples were other bright spots today, due in part to their defensive characteristics; but their modest gains struggled to offset the lack of follow-through from the likes of Financials and Industrials. REITs were among the day's biggest disappointments but Industrials was home to the day's worst performing S&P industry group. Human Resources plunged 9.5% after Monster Worldwide (MNST 42.10 -6.41) cut its Q1 revenue guidance.
Telecom and Utilities were the day's biggest laggards, but that's understandable since both are among this year's three best performing sectors.
Separately, ISM Services unexpectedly fell in March to 52.4 in March, the lowest reading since April 2003, while the employment component slumped to just above growth at 50.8. The bears also pointed to a smaller than expected rise in February factory orders, which further underscores the weak pace for 2007 manufacturing activity, as another reason to question whether or not yesterday's surprise rally was a bit overdone.
Market Internals for Wednesday 04 April 2007 - 18:15
Leading Sectors: Tech (+0.58%), Health Care (+0.45%), Consumer Staples (+0.34%), Energy (+0.44%) and Materials (+0.01%). Leading Industries : Coal and Consumable Fuels +6.0%, Fertilizer and Agriculture Chemicals +3.2%, Oil and Gas Refining +2.2%, Tires and Rubber +2.1%, Motorcycle Manu +1.8%.
Lagging Sectors: Financials (-0.25%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.07%), Industrials (-0.27%), Telecom (-0.54%) and Utilities (-0.39%).. Lagging Industries: Human Resources and Employment Services -9.4%, Computers and Electronics -2.3%, Paper Products -1.8%, Food Distributors --1.2%, Trucking --1.1%.
NYSE: Lower than avg volume: 1400, vs. 1604 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 1758/1463 New highs outpacing new lows: 243/21.
Nasdaq: Lower than avg volume: 1769, vs. 1059 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 1413/1587 New highs outpacing new lows: 144/37
Yesterday, DOW and S&P500 hit their respective short term upside OPs and promptly closed right there, thus burning out any upside reserve for today. Today will see them test their critical resistance levels from their mid-March highs. A break above will give us new highs since Shanghai Surprise.
Didn't happen. That resistance was always going to be a tough nut to crack; DOW is sitting just above ... NASDAQ is just below ... and S&P 500 is on ... their respective upside 100% OP levels. This could either mean: a. Markets took a breather to gather strength for the Pre-3-Day Weekend holiday b. Market has paused today and will stall on the Pre-3-Day Weekend holiday, which could mean a sell-off.
I doubt very much that option a. will happen. I was expecting a pullback early in the week which, obviously, didn't happen. So could it happen tomorrow?
REPORT SUMMARY Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 169 days) DOW JONES : 32.693/169 = 0.1934% off (99.8066%) NASDAQ : 45.821/169 = 0.2711% off (99.7289%) S&P 500 : 34.536/169 = 0.2044% off (99.7956%)
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
5 April - BMO « Reply #7 on Apr 5, 2007, 6:48am »
(E-mini) Futures Thursday 05 April 2007 @ 06:15 ET : S&P 500 (JUN) -1.25 • NASDAQ 100 (JUN) -1.25 • DOW ($5) (JUN) -10.00 Treasury Yield Thursday 05 April 2007 @ 06:25 ET : 5 Year Note 4.56% -0.02 • 10 Year Note 4.66% -0.01 • 30 Year Bond 4.84% 0.00
Quote:
DOW is sitting just above ... NASDAQ is just below ... and S&P 500 is on ... their respective upside 100% OP levels. This could either mean: a. Markets took a breather to gather strength for the Pre-3-Day Weekend holiday rally ... or ... b. Market has paused today and will stall on the Pre-3-Day Weekend, which could mean a sell-off.
I doubt very much that option a. will happen. I was expecting a pullback early in the week which, obviously, didn't happen. So could it happen tomorrow?
World markets are mixed and flat, very much like how the U.S. was yesterday. No surprise as we get into the last day of a shortened week without the ability to weigh in on the results of Friday's crucial Nonfarm Payrolls. Investors will be cautious about taking up new positions ahead of this and other important data including Employment related and consumer related numbers that could shift the color of the market.
Currently, Gold is up in a big way at 677.40 ( +7.70) per Troy oz, while oil stays unchanged, now trading at 64.38 ( -0.26) pb.
Briefing.com Updated: Wed-04-Apr-07 17:25 ET : After Hours Report - Sealy Earnings Fail To Nudge Market From Slumber::
Price level vs. 4 pm ET: The major averages closed mixed after staying within a narrow range for most of the day.
The market managed to throw off both weaker-than-expected Factory Orders (1% versus consensus of 1.9%) and ISM Services (52.4 versus consensus 54.7) reports thanks to optimism surrounding diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. Five out of ten economic sectors posted losses today.
A mixed tone dictates the after hours session as well. The S&P 500 futures, at 1448.50, are 0.69 point below fair value, while the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1819.25, are 0.39 point above fair value.
Tomorrow, equity market investors will likely have their minds on the employment situation as weekly initial jobless claims data will be released at 08:30 ET.
Thursday will also be the market's last chance to position for the 08:30 ET Friday release of March Nonfarm Payrolls data. (Briefing.com consensus is for a gain of 150,000 payrolls, unemployment rate reading of 4.6%, March hourly earnings of a gain of 0.3%, and average workweek of 33.8 hours). Trade is closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday.
On the earnings front, five companies are expected to report in the morning Thursday, including Constellation Brands (STZ) and Matrix Service Co. (MTRX).
After the close, WD-40 Co. (WDFC) will report earnings.
___________________________________________
Earnings Highlights for Thursday April 05 BMO: SHLM, STZ, RPM AMC: RSTO, WDFC
Events for Thursday April 05 08:30 am Initial Claims 10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories
Events for Friday April 06 (Note: Equity markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Bond and Currency markets will remain open.) 08:30 am Nonfarm Payrolls 08:30 am Unemployment Rate 08:30 am Hourly Earnings 08:30 am Average Workweek 10:00 am Wholesale Inventories 15:00 pm Consumer Credit
COMMENTARY With only Unemployment claims on the cards BMO, I'm not lighting any Hope candles today. Maybe light up some red candles, like the Bearish Opening Marubozu, or the Bearish Engulfing or Harami or Kicker ... ___________________________________________
Direction for Thursday 05 April 2007; Down ___________________________________________
SUMMARY
Quote:
I reckon we'll pause to the upside today and pull back to stall on Thursday.
That how I felt yesterday BMO. I feel even more that way today. The Stalled Pattern is such a consistent and predictable formation for the DOW and S&P 500 that is tough for me to see anything else happening. In the last 6 months, S&P has reliably paused and stalled 9 times. Only once, back in late October 06, did a pause NOT stall which went on to see two more upside days before breaking down in spectacular fashion.
So much for the Three Day Weekend Rally! Like the Christmas and New Year weekends last year, looks like it won't be happening again. At best, we'll get an upside consolidation. But I'm going for a moderately down day to complete the Stalled Pattern.
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
5 April - AMC « Reply #8 on Apr 5, 2007, 5:16pm »
Quote:
At best, we'll get an upside consolidation. But I'm going for a moderately down day to complete the Stalled Pattern.
Direction for Thursday 05 April 2007; Down
Got the upside consolidation but I had to go the wrong way. No harm done ... except to my ego!
BRIEFING.COM - Thursday 05 April 2007 @ 16:35 ET AMC Stock Market Update - Stocks End Week Upbeat
Stocks clawed their way higher again Thursday, ending a holiday-shortened week on an upbeat note and extending the winning streak on the Dow and Nasdaq to six sessions. Among the few news items providing a floor of modest buying support were more upbeat analyst commentary, another pullback in oil prices, and some M&A action.
With regard to the latter, billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp made an offer to purchase DaimlerChrysler's (DCX 84.88 +4.32) Chrysler Group for $4.5 bln in cash. The market was trading sideways in a narrow range until that news hit the wires around 1:00 ET. Not surprisingly, General Motors (GM 31.93 +0.90), which has been rumored as a possible bidder, surged to session highs as shareholders, questioning whether such a deal would be the right move for GM considering its own challenges, embraced the news.
Aside from Autos gaining momentum, Homebuilders were another bright spot for the Consumer Discretionary sector after Ryland Group (RYL 42.10 +0.85) issued encouraging preliminary Q1 results.
Health Care, though, was the day's best-performing sector. However, its 0.7% advance got a big lift from solid follow-through buying in biotech giant Amgen (AMGN 58.33 +1.65). Another sector attracting buyers due in part to its defensive characteristics was Consumer Staples. Distillers ranked as one of the day's best-performing S&P groups after Constellation Brands (STZ 21.50 +0.68) posted a 26% jump in Q4 profits, which plays into Briefing.com's Overweight rating on the sector.
Technology was in focus after Micron Technology (MU 11.47 -0.60) posted a wider than expected Q2 loss. Goldman Sachs raising its estimates on Yahoo! (YHOO 31.95 +0.33) and Research in Motion (RIMM 145.65 +3.12), however, helped to provide some reassurance about the influential sector's growth prospects.
The Energy sector's resilience in the face of falling oil prices for a third consecutive session was also noteworthy. Crude for May delivery closed down 0.7% and below $64/bbl, or about 6% below the six-month high set a week earlier.
Nonetheless, with economic data playing an increasingly important role of late, and no report bigger than tomorrow's closely-watched jobs report given its influence on monetary policy, the market's inability to trade on the employment data until the market reopens Monday left investors cautiously optimistic heading into a three-day weekend. Overall market gains were modest at best and below average volume during another thinly-traded session offered evidence that there was little conviction on the part of buyers.
Sector Performance for Thursday 05 April 2007 - 18:15
Leading Sectors: Tech (+0.58%), Financials (+0.17%), Tech (+0.43%), Health Care (+0.65%), Consumer Staples (+0.27%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.53%), Energy (+0.32%), Telecom (+0.09%) and Utilities (+0.34%).
Lagging Sectors: Industrials (-0.01%) and Materials (-0.08%).
So much for the Three Day Weekend Rally! Like the Christmas and New Year weekends last year, looks like it won't be happening again.
Would you call 12 points on the DOW, a rally? Well, all we can do know is cross our fingers and pray that Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow won't kill the market while we stand by and watch, helpless.
Have a nice long weekend!
REPORT SUMMARY Closing Price Accuracy (over the last 170 days) DOW JONES : 32.741/170 = 0.1926% off (99.8074%) NASDAQ : 45.942/170 = 0.2703% off (99.7297%) S&P 500 : 34.536/170 = 0.2031% off (99.7969%)
Directional Correctness: 141/197 ( 71.57% )
(Note: Equity markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Bond and Currency markets will remain open.)
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
Conrad Alvin Lim Administrator Pattern Trader Coach / WA Trainer member is offline
The Pattern Trader
Joined: Apr 2006 Gender: Male Posts: 1,758 Location: Singapore
Preview for Week April 09 to April 13, 2007 « Reply #9 on Apr 8, 2007, 4:15am »
U.S. MARKETS : APRIL 02 TO APRIL 05, 2007
This past week was a pleasant surprise as I was looking at a modest gain at best but instead got a 1.8% gain on the broad market. Didn't get the pre-holiday rally but I'm not bitching.
I was expecting this coming week to be a tanker after last week's gains but Nonfarms came in on Friday with an upside surprise and economists are expecting a big week for the market starting tomorrow. But big in which direction?
BRIEFING.COM - Thursday 05 March 2007 @ 16:44 ET AMC Weekly Wrap:
The week was a short one for the stock market, but it was still long on performance as each of the major indices gained more than 1.5% and didn't suffer a losing session all week.
There wasn't a lot of substantive news behind the gains, but a drop in oil prices and additional M&A activity were effective in driving renewed buying interest. The seasonality factor garnered some attention as a catalyst, too, with the Stock Trader's Almanac carrying the reminder that April has been the best month for the Dow, on average, since 1950.
There is a long way to go yet this month, but so far, April is living up to its historical reputation.
In breaking down the news this week, the biggest event was Iran's decision to release the 15 British sailors it had been holding captive. A burgeoning belief that there would be a peaceful resolution to that geopolitical crisis moved oil prices off their recent highs, so the response to the actual decision wasn't as bullish as one might have expected. Nonetheless, an approximately 2.5% pullback in crude prices for the week provided a source of support for the broader market.
Further M&A activity, which was highlighted by a $29 billion private equity buyout offer for First Data Corp. (FDC), Sam Zell's $8.2 billion acquisition of the Tribune Co. (TRB) and Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. making a $4.5 billion cash offer for DaimlerChrysler's (DCX) Chrysler unit, also helped reverse last week's bearish bias.
The Good Friday release of the March employment report should help determine whether the favorable disposition holds in the coming week. It won't be until Monday, though, that we can get a better sense of things since that is the first opportunity the stock market will have to respond to the report since it is closed on Good Friday.
The data released through Thursday weren't terribly impressive. On Monday the ISM Index, a gauge of national manufacturing activity, pointed to slowing growth and rising prices. Granted there was a sizable rally on Tuesday in response to the 0.7% increase reported for February pending home sales, but that struck us as an over-reaction considering that it was already known that actual existing home sales for February rose 3.9%.
In any event, traders took that news and ran with it, having also been heartened by a 2.0% drop in oil prices that day that mitigated concerns about a consumer spending slowdown.
The market, meanwhile, all but dismissed weaker than expected ISM Services and Factory Orders data on Wednesday, and eked out modest gains in the hump-day session.
The abbreviated week ended on a positive note with reassuring initial claims data, but the modest gains on Thursday, and the low volume associated with them, underscored a sense of hesitancy ahead of the employment report.
Despite the big bunny hop we saw this week ahead of the Easter holiday, it didn't do anything to change our near-term outlook for the market, which we have labeled as uninspiring knowing that economic growth is slowing, earnings growth is decelerating, inflation is worsening, and the Fed isn't going to cut interest rates anytime soon.
There will be some weeks that are better than others (like this week was), but ultimately, the aforementioned conditions are not conducive to a sustained stock market rally.
Market Internals for Thursday 05 April 2007 - 17:48
Leading Sectors: Tech (+0.58%), Financials (+0.17%), Tech (+0.43%), Health Care (+0.65%), Consumer Staples (+0.27%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.53%), Energy (+0.32%), Telecom (+0.09%) and Utilities (+0.34%). Leading Industries : Biotech +2.2%, Life Science Tool Services +1.6%, Motorcycle Manu +1.6%, Leisure Products +1.5%, Homebuilding +1.5%.
Lagging Sectors: Industrials (-0.01%) and Materials (-0.08%). Lagging Industries: Human Resources and Employment Services -1.4%, Forest Products -1.2%, Electronic Components and Equip -0.95%, Hotels --0.80%, Food Retail --0.76%.
NYSE: Lower than avg volume: 1247, vs. 1596 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 1949/1237 New highs outpacing new lows: 242/19.
Nasdaq: Lower than avg volume: 1573, vs. 2050 avg Advancers outpacing Decliners: 1676/1324 New highs outpacing new lows: 154/50
EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEEK OF APRIL 09 TO APRIL 13, 2007 Earnings Season is back for Q2! Officially starting on Tuesday, after the close with Alcoa (AA). Wednesday sees some of the early big names coming to the fore in the form of APOL, JOSB, BBBY, DNA and RIMM. The first of the DOW components comes on Friday BMO with General Electric (GE).
On a personal note, I will be taking a position on RIMM (against my better judgement) with a low risk Call option if I can find one. I think they're good for it.
Earnings Highlights for Monday April 09 BMO: DLP, SCHN AMC: LWSN
Earnings Highlights for Tuesday April 10 BMO: AZZ, TTWO AMC: AA
Earnings Highlights for Wednesday April 11 BMO: ACGY, APOL, JOSB, PGR AMC: APOG, BBBY, DNA, RIMM, RI, SAI
Earnings Highlights for Thursday April 12 BMO: MTG, PTMK, PIR, RAD, VIP AMC: CPWM, LRCX
Earnings Highlights for Friday April 13 BMO: GE, INFY
ECONOMIC EVENTS FOR WEEK OF April 09 to April 13, 2007 No Events for Monday April 09
No Events Tuesday April 10
Events for Wednesday April 11 10:30 am Crude Inventories 14:00 pm Treasury Budget
Events for Thursday April 12 08:30 am Export Prices ex-ag 08:30 am Import Prices ex-oil 08:30 am Initial Claims 10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories
Events for Friday April 13 08:30 am Trade Balance 08:30 am PPI 08:30 am Core PPI 10:00 am Mich Sentiment-Prel.
COMMENTARY As far as what happens tomorrow, news agencies seem divided about which way it will go;
(CNBC.com)Market pros said a stronger-than-expected employment report released Friday lowers the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could send stocks lower on Monday following a long holiday weekend.
(Reuters) -- Stocks should complete the last leg of their recovery from February's big sell-off next week as Friday's surprisingly strong job growth data calms investor concerns about the outlook for the economy and consumer spending.
(MarketWatch) - A stronger-than-expected March jobs report will probably hurt U.S. stocks when investors have their first chance to react to the numbers on Monday. Traders will likely drive shares lower when they return from the Easter holiday, suspecting the Federal Reserve's next move would be to hike rates and not to cut them, strategists said Friday.
I guess we'll find out in less than 24 hours when the Futures and Currency markets open.
For the rest of the week, a few bumps and grinds are expected with Wed's Treasury Budget and Fri's PPI numbers. Would I still be justified in thinking that we'll have a down week next week? ___________________________________________
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIND: CBOT) 12,560.20 +30.15 (+0.24%)
Direction for the week April 09 to April 13 2007; Down ___________________________________________
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMB) (COMP.IDX: NASDAQ) 2,471.34 +12.65 (+0.51%)
Direction for the week April 09 to April 13 2007; Flat ___________________________________________
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX: CBOE) 1,443.76 +4.39 (+0.30%)
Direction for the week April 09 to April 13 2007; Down ___________________________________________
SUMMARY A bit of a pull back won't hurt the market but its going to be edgy as any sort of pull back can well turn into panic selling in the current climate of the market. Its going to be another one of those weeks where the market will overcook any bit of news. Volumes will remain lower than average but volatility (VIX) looks to have hit a support and should get some upside early in the week.
I'll be looking for a major correction on Tuesday or Wednesday if we don't first get it tomorrow. But I'm quite certain that we'll be gong down for a bit this week.
Direction for the week April 09 to April 13 2007; Down
Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right and how much you don't lose when you're wrong ... George Soros
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